Impacto da temperatura na intensidade de ocorrência da podridão-parda (Monilinia fructicola (Wint) Honey) em pessegueiro no Brasil

Abstract

Little is known about the effects of climate change on the spatial and temporal distribution of plant health problems in Brazil. Climate change could cause significant impacts on Brazilian agriculture particularly in disease occurrence. The temperature is considered one of the main climatic factors that will change. The assessment of the impacts of changes in temperature requires knowledge of how this factor affects the physiology of the host plant and hence the interaction of the pathogen with the host plant. The objective of the study was to evaluate the impacts of the increase in temperature on the spatial and temporal, of peach brown rot caused by the fungus Monilinia fructicola (Wint) Honey in Brazil. The influence of temperature on disease development in a growth chamber allows the isolation of specific environmental effects, providing data that explain their behavior in the field. The analysis of the impact of temperature on the occurrence of major diseases of peach in the southern region contributes to the development of strategies to adapt to the problem. Information on the effect of temperature changes contributed to generating maps with forecasts for future scenarios. For this, the tests were conducted in growth chambers and temperature levels tested were determined based on already published IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) predictions, regarding the prediction of changes in atmospheric temperature. To produce maps of future prognosis of brown rot of peaches to Brazil, used a geographic database structured with weather information from the IPCC in its Fourth Report. The database was composed of geographic information of climate variables from Brazil to the climate reference (climatological normal from: data for 1961-1990 and 1961-2010 for CRU data INMET) and future climate 2080 (2071-2100) scenarios A2 and B2 IPCC data) and was structured using GIS (Geographic Information System). Based on models of the evolution of pest problems and / or tracks climate favorable to their development and associated geographic database maps were drawn geographic distribution of climate reference. After validation of the methodology (model / climatic zones) specific for the disease problem, maps were drawn geographic distribution of future climates, and they are evaluated and discussed in order to determine the impacts of climate change, both geographically and temporally. The analysis shows that even in the future will continue to brown-rot causing economic losses in current production areas, indicating the need for its proper management in peach orchards.