Relações entre preços de fontes de energia, fertilizantes básicos e commodities agrícolas no Brasil

Abstract

The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between short and long term that relate inputs in agricultural production chains. A model was estimated Vector Error Correction (VEC (2)) using the monthly series of oil, ammonium sulphate, superphosphate, potassium chloride, corn, soy and chicken cold. The oil showed significant coefficients in the cointegrating equations of the other variables. The basic fertilizers also showed significant coefficients for corn, soybeans and chicken. The corn and soybeans had significant coefficients for both basic fertilizers as for the chicken. The adjustment coefficient short term imbalances demonstrate that the return to equilibrium is slow. The impulse response function revealed that the price of most variables responds positively to unanticipated shocks in other variables. However, these responses are moderated getting around 3%.