Estimação de um modelo econométrico para os custos variáveis de semente certificada de Glycine max : uma evidência empírica

Abstract

The Science and Technology of Seeds when using econometrical models and related operational parameters to its valuation, make use to the producing - consumers, information that minimize uncertainties and maximize the perception of the value of the technology in the monetary expression of the certifyd seed, in this scene are waited the increase of the tax of use of legal seeds. The productive scene of certified seeds lacks of index technician who relates its value with the variation of the price of the main productive factors that they make possible to the activity; many times, the knowledge of the necessary expenses to the production of the certifyd seed, customary are compared with the one of the soy comodity, therefore the necessary special cares are not perceived stop to reach the standard demanded for the official norms of production or the ones of the company. The basic methodology of the present review is based on the analysis of the series, 2000- 2004, of the changeable costs right-handers of the production of soy seed, through the method of the squared minimums usual adjusted to the variable dummy, that it characterizes the line of secular trend of the costs of market of the productive factors, Yt = 457,48 + 12,86 * X - 199,82 * DUMMY + * (26,37 X * DUMMY) e it foretells the waited attacked price of the bag with 40kg of seed of soy in 2005, the R$ interval [58,96 - 62,17], however of empirical form, a time that the series of costs presents given not-stationary, verified with the tests of the function of autocorrelation (FAC), partial autocorrelation (FACP) and unit root of Dickey-Fuller, being then the considered prognostic spurious; however, the scene of the Real Plan allows to construct empirical econometrical model, R$ x hectare -1 ={ [ CF + CV (1 + M) ] x 1,pe } + Ir + Roy US$ , that it informs the interested agent the brought up to date price of the legal seed, this comparative parameter it leads in account adjustment of interval of confidence of model econometrical of changeable costs, t+3 er = Yt+3 (0,9116 + pt e ), that it uses the rational expectations of inflation in 5,7%; average tax of the inflation of costs of long stated period in 8,84%, tax of markup determined for referring criteria technician to the cost delinquent of long stated period it enters 7,26 8.78%; royalty enters 9,19 10.45%; irrigation between 10,91 and 12,42%; enterprise efficiency gotten by the reductions of the area planted in 27% and the price in until R$ 15,50 for bag, decurrent of the variation in the productivity, measurement in scenes with 10% of variation in the tax accomplishes of multiplication and losses during the certification. In such a way the valuation of the technology of seeds, that carries through the maintenance of the quality, reprodutibility and yield, getting normal profit and not extraordinary it, respecting to the copyright, understands in the year of 2005 the interval of, R$ [78,34 - 92,58], ceteris parabus, average cost of production it enters R$ [56,81 - 72,31]; fixed cost between R$ [27,69 - 25,64]; changeable cost standard R$ 27,47, changeable cost real R$ 35,77, tax of relative multiplication of seeds to the platforms of 58,5 - 43,5 bags x hectare -1; prescription of the residues between US$ [1,46 – 2,24] x bag -1 .