A influência dos fenômenos climáticos El Niño e La Niña na incidência de dengue no Rio Grande do Sul: uma abordagem interdisciplinar com aperfeiçoamento de um modelo compartimental

Abstract

Dengue represents a serious public health issue in several regions of Brazil, including Rio Grande do Sul (RS). This study addresses the influence of the El Niño and La Niña climate phenomena on the incidence of dengue in the state, investigating how climate variations affect the ecology of the transmitting vector and the dynamics of the disease. In an interdisciplinary approach, knowledge from epidemiology, climatology, and mathematical modeling was combined. A Susceptible-Exposed-InfectedRecovered-Susceptible (SEIRS) compartmental model was enhanced, with 14 compartments. The equations describe the different stages of the disease as a function of time. This model was numerically solved using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method (RK4). A study of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) between 2009 and 2024 was conducted, based on data from the Climate Prediction Center, categorizing the phenomena according to their intensity. Then, meteorological data from the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) were obtained to calculate the average temperature, precipitation, and humidity during these years, relating them to dengue cases in RS. The model validation was performed by comparing the results and predictions of the epidemiological model with the observational data available in the literature. The simulations showed that climate variations associated with the El Niño and La Niña phenomena have a direct impact on dengue incidence, with a higher number of cases observed during El Niño. The proposed model is consistent with INMET data and represents an innovation by incorporating the specific climatic elements of RS. The identified solutions corroborate previous studies by showing the association between these phenomena and the growth in dengue cases, making it suitable for simulating epidemiological dynamics under the influence of these factors, providing a reliable basis for analysis. The study provides information for the planning and implementation of dengue control and prevention strategies, especially in the context of climate change, highlighting the importance of interdisciplinarity in understanding the problem and developing effective solutions.