Inovação agrícola e o efeito spillovers: uma análise para o Mercosul

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to assess the impacts of agricultural innovation in Brazil, and its spillover effect on its main neighbors, based on the Global Trade Analysis Project - GTAP, a Computable General Equilibrium (EGC) model, highlighting the impacts on economic growth and in the general welfare of the economy. In order to achieve this objective, six scenarios with positive technological shocks in agriculture were simulated. The first scenario was an individual Hicks-neutral shock for each MERCOSUR founding country, that is, without overflowing. The second scenario represented the same shock as the previous one, only this time with overflow. The third scenario showed a technological shock in world agriculture, isolating Brazil from its main neighbors. The fourth scenario tried to analyze how a mixed shock would affect the MERCOSUR founding countries. The fifth scenario repeated the previous shock with overflow. Finally, there was an agricultural isolation from the founding countries of MERCOSUR. The results showed that agricultural innovation generates gains in world welfare, with greater benefit for the innovative region. In addition, innovation has led to a favorable scenario for increasing production, economic growth and reducing inequality, benefiting MERCOSUR with higher levels of performance.