Ensaios sobre economia do crime: avaliação de impacto do Pacto Pelotas pela Paz e Operação Pulso Firme

Abstract

This dissertation presents two essays on public security programs. Each essay addresses a different topic, as well as different contexts. The first essay aims to analyze the impact of the Pacto Pelotas Pela Paz (PPP) program, applied in the city of Pelotas-RS. The PPP consists of an evidence-informed crime and violence prevention program divided into five axes: Urbanization, Policing and Justice; Social Prevention; Technology; and Administrative Inspection. In the first essay, we dedicated exclusive attention to the area of policing and justice, analyzing the impact of the program in relation to crimes of a patrimonial nature such as robbery and theft. Within this area, the PPP has applied a series of evidence-informed tools to reduce theft and robbery. This procedure is commonly known as hot spot policing. In this sense, municipal action in the public security agenda in Pelotas, complementing state management, resulted in the implementation of the Pelotas Pela Paz Pact, seeking to reverse the situation of violence experienced by the municipality between 2012-2017, reaching levels above the national average. Thus, the present study seeks to evaluate the impact of the program’s pact on theft and robbery indicators, using the synthetic control method as a tool for impact assessment. The results found show that the pact generated an impact trend for the occurrence of robberies in Pelotas, given that the fit of the estimates is imperfect. In addition, the lack of impact for thefts shows that there was no crime replacement process during the analyzed period, that is, criminals did not start committing more thefts to compensate for the reduction in theft crimes. The results also help municipalities to be active actors in public security policy. Regarding the second essay, the study was exclusively dedicated to an analysis of the impact of Operação Pulso Firme (OPF) on crimes against life. Operation Pulse Firme was a mega operation launched by the State Public Security Department that aimed to transfer 27 leaders of criminal factions that operate in some cities in Rio Grande do Sul. This process of isolation of leaders sought to signal to criminals the intolerance of power public about offensive behavior, applying focused deterrence techniques to change their behavior. The complexity of this lies in several factors such as insufficient public security, lost war against factions, easy access to illegal weapons and drugs, poverty and social vulnerability, among others. The results reveal that the program showed a reduction in the homicide rate in the municipalities directly affected by the OPF, but with a lag of two years after the operation. No indirect effect was found in the municipalities neighboring the treated municipalities. The studies contribute with evidence that can help in decision-making for public security policies applied in two contexts in Brazil.