Impacto da predição dos modelos globais de clima na produtividade de soja no município de Bagé/RS

Abstract

Climate change has been the subject of worldwide research for years, and the description of these changes has been commonly shown by the Global Climate Models. These models are useful for understanding how the Earth's climate is changing and anticipating natural and anthropogenic variations in the future on the global scale. Regional climate models (RCMs) are used for regionalization of climate information, since there is a need for local studies for several areas. However, the series of precipitation and temperature resulting from the simulations of the RCM, in a given location, show bias in relation to the recorded data, for the same period. The bias correction methods allow a transformation of the results of the RCMs in order to correspond to the statistical properties of the observed data. One of the uses of the data from the GCMs is the input of the agrometeorological models, in order to predict the productivity of some crops. Thus, the estimation of soybean yield, one of the main export products of Brazil, becomes the main focus of this study. The research site is located in the municipality of Bagé / RS, which has shown an increase in soybean production and presents certain peculiarities when compared to the producing region of the state, northern region. The prediction of soybean productivity in this region allows expectations and planning in relation to regional development, making possible the application of preventive and / or contributory measures to future scenarios. Thus, the objective of this thesis is the estimation of future soybean yield in the municipality of Bagé/RS, by integrating the FAO productivity model into global climate models.