Ciclos econômicos e emissão de CO2 no Brasil: análise dinâmica para políticas ambientais ótimas

Abstract

We investigate how potential CO2 mitigation policies in Brazil can dynamically respond to economic cycles generated by productivity shocks. The survey also allowed the calculation of the balance of the costs of mitigation and pollution, which had not been done for this country using general equilibrium. We employ a more advanced methodology that the commonly used in this area, integrating environmental policy to productivity shocks through two models of Real Business Cycle (RBC) in Dynamic and Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE), building scenarios of tax and cap policies in stylized economies that include an externality of pollution. We conclude that the mitigation cost is lower than the pollution cost in Brazil, even assuming a static policy; justifying the adoption of restrictive policies in the country. Moreover, we find that the behavior of mitigation is procyclical in productivity shocks – the reduction of emissions should increase (decrease) with the output. Thus, in the positive shock, both the tax rate and the cap should also increase, enabling a growth in emissions, but in a level less than the scenario without policy.