Estimando o tempo ótimo de um contrato de concessão: análise dos projetos da terceira etapa do Programa de Concessões Rodoviárias Federais

Abstract

Concession projects to the private sector are already reality in Brazil. In this context, the objective of this study is to analyze, for the national scenario, how concession contracts for the Third Stage of the Concession Program could behave. Among the motivations on why concessions are made, we can place the public motivations, private motivations and shared motivations. Given the problem of economic regulation of this kind of sector, the present work tries to estimate for each company how it behaves with the indicated parameters. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is also performed to verify how companies behave with changes in costs and rates of return. The results indicate that companies are sensitive to changes in costs and changes in rates of return bring significant results.