A aliança Sino-Russa e a Guerra na Ucrânia: indícios históricos do século XXI

Abstract

This dissertation examines the Sino-Russian alliance through the lens of systemic crises and hegemonic transitions in the 21st century, using the war in Ukraine as a pivotal analytical juncture. Grounded in the world-systems analysis tradition, the study draws upon the theoretical frameworks of Immanuel Wallerstein and Giovanni Arrighi to explore the emergence of a Sino-Russian axis that challenges the Western liberal order. The central hypothesis posits that the intensification of technical-military cooperation between China and Russia not only strains the global geopolitical equilibrium but also signals an impending hegemonic reconfiguration with direct implications for international security, global governance, and the architecture of world power. Methodologically, the research employs process tracing and case study approaches, incorporating content analysis of both primary and secondary sources, including official documents, databases such as SIPRI and RAND, and specialized literature. Findings indicate that Sino-Russian cooperation transcends diplomatic rhetoric, constituting a systemic response to Western containment strategies post-Cold War. By examining the strategic, military, technological, and diplomatic dimensions of this alliance, the study concludes that it functions as a vector of a new geopolitical grammar, shifting the center of gravity from the Atlantic to the Eurasian space. This research thus contributes to the understanding of the fractures in the prevailing order, emerging realignments, and the potential contours of a nascent multipolar world order.