Análise epidemiológica da dengue em Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, 2010 – 2018

Abstract

This dissertation aims to evaluate the incidence of dengue in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais from 2010 to 2018. For the development of the study, databases generated by the National System of Notifiable Diseases (SINAN) were analyzed in partnership with the Municipal Secretariat of Belo Horizonte Health SMSA / BH. During the study period, there were 324,044 cases of dengue and 1,334 cases of severe dengue in Belo Horizonte, MG, with 88 deaths. During the period the municipality faced three epidemics. In the analysis of risk factors, it was found that people characterized as black had higher lethality (6,863 cases; 4.3%), followed by white (36,469 cases; 2.6%). In addition, it was found that old age and male gender were also risk factors for dengue death in Belo Horizonte. In temporal modeling, the most appropriate model for the period was SARIMA (2.1.1) (1.0.0), which predicted an increase in the number of cases in 2019, which in fact occurred, thus indicating that mathematical models are an important tool for the organization of health systems in the control and prevention of diseases. This dissertation consists of two scientific articles referring to the analysis of risk factors for dengue and severe dengue in Belo Horizonte and the construction of a temporal model to perform the prediction of dengue cases in Belo Horizonte, between 2010 and 2018.